tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 10:13, is the safest bet: 83% chance of reaching Santa Ana on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 75% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2319 United IAD 17:50 SNA 20:40 13% 5% 0.8% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Santa Ana on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Santa Ana is 3 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAD 14:35 → DEN 16:29UA 1126 2h 41m Denver DEN 19:10 → SNA 20:40UA 1704 9h 05m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 1h 20m Denver DEN 13:25 → SNA 14:56UA 1707 7h 43m 96% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAD 06:30 → SFO 09:12UA 1095 3h 13m San Francisco SFO 12:25 → SNA 14:09UA 2441 10h 39m 97% 80%
UnitedDetails → IAD 15:15 → SFO 18:02UA 2862 1h 25m San Francisco SFO 19:27 → SNA 21:12UA 589 8h 57m 90% 80%
DeltaDetails → IAD 14:11 → MSP 15:54DL 3699 · flown by SkyWest 2h 34m Minneapolis MSP 18:28 → SNA 20:20DL 2107 9h 09m 97% 78%
DeltaDetails → IAD 05:53 → ATL 07:47DL 2127 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 11:00 → SNA 12:31DL 329 9h 38m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:40 → IAH 10:59UA 1524 1h 28m Houston IAH 12:27 → SNA 13:56UA 1533 8h 16m 95% 77%
AmericanDetails → IAD 06:14 → DFW 08:35AA 2617 3h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:26 → SNA 13:42AA 2465 10h 28m 98% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → IAD 18:17 → ATL 20:09DL 1695 50m Atlanta ATL 20:59 → SNA 22:25DL 826 7h 08m 75% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON