tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 4425 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record IAD 09:00 STL 10:27 17% 14% 2.7% 83%
UA 4527 United flown by GoJet no forecast: 12-month record IAD 17:55 STL 19:26 27% 16% 1.1% 73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach St Louis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (St Louis is 1 h behind Dulles). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAD 08:08 → ATL 10:01DL 3080 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 13:49 → STL 14:27DL 2700 7h 19m 99% 86%
DeltaDetails → IAD 06:00 → DTW 07:35DL 3826 · flown by SkyWest 1h 15m Detroit DTW 08:50 → STL 09:31DL 2868 4h 31m 92% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAD 10:58 → ATL 12:38DL 1324 3h 14m Atlanta ATL 15:52 → STL 16:39DL 543 6h 41m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:30 → ORD 11:52UA 1252 2h 28m Chicago ORD 14:20 → STL 15:46UA 2000 6h 16m 100% 80%
AmericanDetails → IAD 18:11 → CLT 19:45AA 5447 · flown by PSA 3h 11m Charlotte CLT 22:56 → STL 23:58AA 459 6h 47m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → IAD 10:13 → DEN 12:05UA 1865 1h 20m Denver DEN 13:25 → STL 16:33UA 1639 7h 20m 96% 78%
DeltaDetails → IAD 15:22 → ATL 17:11DL 2135 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 19:54 → STL 20:37DL 2833 6h 15m 96% 77%
UnitedDetails → IAD 08:15 → ORD 09:36UA 1775 3h 19m Chicago ORD 12:55 → STL 14:23UA 4581 · flown by GoJet 7h 08m 100% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAD 17:42 → EWR 19:06UA 1831 1h 00m Newark EWR 20:06 → STL 21:43UA 2040 5h 01m 47% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON