Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 683 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 683 IAD 09:00 → TPA 11:32 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest F9 2953 IAD 19:21 → TPA 21:57 · 20% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 683 United Flight history →	IAD 09:00	TPA 11:32	8%	3%	1.1%	91%
UA 2277 United Flight history →	IAD 12:40	TPA 15:06	13%	4%	1.0%	86%
UA 1140 United Flight history →	IAD 18:00	TPA 20:39	18%	7%	0.9%	75%
F9 2953 Frontier Flight history →	IAD 19:21	TPA 21:57	20%	9%	2.6%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON