Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 6110 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 12:50	TYS 14:27	18%	8%	0.0%	82%
UA 4257 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 09:00	TYS 10:42	20%	13%	0.9%	80%
UA 4304 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 22:10	TYS 23:54	24%	11%	0.6%	76%
UA 4914 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAD 18:46	TYS 20:34	25%	15%	2.2%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON