Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: no forecasts for this route’s flights; their 12-month records are below.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 4839 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 20:34	AMA 22:30	16%	6%	0.6%	84%
UA 4817 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 12:25	AMA 14:21	17%	5%	0.0%	83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Amarillo on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551	2h 19m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:38 → AMA 10:00AA 3920 · flown by Envoy	4h 58m	96%	86%
American Details →	IAH 09:05 → DFW 10:27AA 3598 · flown by Envoy	2h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 13:19 → AMA 14:37AA 3383 · flown by Envoy	5h 32m	96%	78%
American Details →	IAH 10:18 → DFW 11:38AA 1407	2h 54m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 14:32 → AMA 15:50AA 3613 · flown by Envoy	5h 32m	85%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON