tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 15:00, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Anchorage on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 69% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Anchorage on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Anchorage is 3 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 15:00 → DEN 16:43UA 2767 2h 23m Denver DEN 19:06 → ANC 22:50UA 280 10h 50m 98% 76%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:47 → ATL 12:54DL 1585 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 15:15 → ANC 18:48DL 416 12h 01m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → IAH 09:35 → ORD 12:29UA 2124 3h 50m Chicago ORD 16:19 → ANC 19:53UA 461 13h 18m 99% 73%
AlaskaDetails → IAH 05:57 → SEA 08:14AS 241 1h 37m Seattle SEA 09:51 → ANC 12:49AS 1680 9h 52m 96% 68%
AmericanDetails → IAH 11:00 → ORD 13:48AA 2504 3h 07m Chicago ORD 16:55 → ANC 20:59AA 375 12h 59m 100% 68%
AlaskaDetails → IAH 14:38 → SEA 17:21AS 439 3h 34m Seattle SEA 20:55 → ANC 23:40AS 711 12h 02m 99% 65%
AmericanDetails → IAH 10:18 → DFW 11:38AA 1407 3h 37m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 15:15 → ANC 19:23AA 399 12h 05m 89% 60%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → IAH 14:38 → SEA 17:21AS 439 54m Seattle SEA 18:15 → ANC 20:32AS 1408 8h 54m 69% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON