tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 5814 at 09:50, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 5814 United flown by SkyWest Flight history → IAH 09:50 ASE 11:40 24% 9% 0.9% 72%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Aspen on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Aspen is 1 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 12:33 → LAX 14:06UA 2460 2h 14m Los Angeles LAX 16:20 → ASE 19:33UA 5786 · flown by SkyWest 8h 00m 97% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 58m Denver DEN 07:45 → ASE 08:46UA 5444 · flown by SkyWest 4h 31m 95% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAH 16:32 → DEN 18:24UA 470 2h 25m Denver DEN 20:49 → ASE 21:45UA 5781 · flown by SkyWest 6h 13m 96% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAH 15:00 → DEN 16:43UA 2767 2h 27m Denver DEN 19:10 → ASE 20:11UA 5779 · flown by SkyWest 6h 11m 98% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAH 12:33 → DEN 14:17UA 2168 3h 08m Denver DEN 17:25 → ASE 18:29UA 5775 · flown by SkyWest 6h 56m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 2h 26m Denver DEN 11:18 → ASE 12:26UA 5769 · flown by SkyWest 6h 06m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:49DL 1069 56m Atlanta ATL 09:45 → ASE 11:22DL 4011 · flown by SkyWest 6h 42m 91% 72%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 53m Chicago ORD 08:52 → ASE 11:01UA 5279 · flown by SkyWest 6h 57m 89% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAH 16:32 → DEN 18:24UA 470 46m Denver DEN 19:10 → ASE 20:11UA 5779 · flown by SkyWest 4h 39m 68% 56%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON