Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1069 at 05:40 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–37%.

Safest bet that day DL 1069 IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:49 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest F9 4106 IAH 20:02 → ATL 23:24 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1069 Delta Flight history →	IAH 05:40	ATL 08:49	6%	3%	0.6%	93%
DL 1315 Delta Flight history →	IAH 07:00	ATL 10:04	9%	4%	0.6%	88%
DL 1585 Delta Flight history →	IAH 09:47	ATL 12:54	15%	5%	0.6%	78%
DL 1682 Delta Flight history →	IAH 12:06	ATL 15:18	18%	5%	0.7%	76%
DL 1572 Delta Flight history →	IAH 14:38	ATL 17:54	19%	6%	1.7%	80%
DL 1223 Delta Flight history →	IAH 17:37	ATL 20:47	22%	8%	1.5%	72%
F9 1404 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 06:18	ATL 09:44	26%	6%	0.8%	68%
UA 2240 United	IAH 18:10	ATL 21:23	26%	9%	0.9%	no record
F9 4106 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 20:02	ATL 23:24	37%	12%	1.5%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON