Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2376 at 07:44 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 2376 IAH 07:44 → AUS 08:53 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 2674 IAH 18:50 → AUS 19:57 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2376 United	IAH 07:44	AUS 08:53	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1859 United Flight history →	IAH 12:17	AUS 13:24	18%	6%	0.6%	82%
UA 1823 United Flight history →	IAH 10:15	AUS 11:19	19%	6%	0.6%	79%
UA 2621 United Flight history →	IAH 20:18	AUS 21:25	23%	9%	0.6%	73%
UA 1179 United Flight history →	IAH 21:46	AUS 22:44	23%	8%	0.6%	82%
UA 2674 United Flight history →	IAH 18:50	AUS 19:57	26%	9%	0.6%	57%
UA 6118 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:20	AUS 15:29	21%	10%	0.0%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON