tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 2378 at 18:52, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2378 United IAH 18:52 BDL 23:25 23% 6% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Hartford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Hartford is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 2h 58m Denver DEN 09:45 → BDL 15:37UA 2643 9h 22m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18DL 1389 1h 13m Detroit DTW 10:31 → BDL 12:15DL 2163 5h 45m 98% 87%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 12:55 → BDL 15:14DL 2739 7h 14m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050 1h 03m Minneapolis MSP 10:16 → BDL 13:52DL 2007 6h 22m 92% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAH 15:20 → DTW 19:03DL 1307 2h 27m Detroit DTW 21:30 → BDL 23:14DL 2989 6h 54m 98% 82%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:47 → ATL 12:54DL 1585 3h 31m Atlanta ATL 16:25 → BDL 18:50DL 2735 8h 03m 99% 81%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:41 → CLT 09:24AA 2011 2h 49m Charlotte CLT 12:13 → BDL 14:19AA 2741 7h 38m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 3h 04m Chicago ORD 11:03 → BDL 14:24UA 2195 8h 20m 100% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → IAH 16:42 → FLL 20:05B6 2180 50m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:55 → BDL 23:59B6 460 6h 17m 41% 25%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON