Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 10–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2174 IAH 07:40 → BNA 09:47 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 1318 IAH 12:02 → BNA 14:12 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 79% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2174 United Flight history →	IAH 07:40	BNA 09:47	10%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 4785 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 17:54	BNA 20:17	19%	10%	0.6%	73%
UA 2165 United Flight history →	IAH 16:33	BNA 18:41	19%	7%	0.6%	49%
UA 1318 United Flight history →	IAH 12:02	BNA 14:12	19%	6%	0.6%	79%
UA 6123 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 18:20	BNA 20:34	19%	12%	0.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON