Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1977 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–33%.

Safest bet that day UA 1977 IAH 07:30 → BOS 12:28 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 932 IAH 11:01 → BOS 15:44 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1977 United Flight history →	IAH 07:30	BOS 12:28	8%	3%	0.6%	94%
UA 1207 United	IAH 08:28	BOS 13:04	12%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1226 United	IAH 12:27	BOS 17:35	21%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 2296 United	IAH 16:50	BOS 21:58	24%	9%	0.6%	no record
B6 932 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 11:01	BOS 15:44	33%	12%	0.7%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON