tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: United via Denver, leaving 07:20, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Burbank on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 2h 23m Denver DEN 11:15 → BUR 12:48UA 2154 7h 28m 98% 82%
FrontierDetails → IAH 07:11 → LAS 08:38F9 1489 2h 33m Las Vegas LAS 11:11 → BUR 12:34F9 4107 7h 23m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 57m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 6h 19m 87% 79%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:49DL 1069 2h 31m Atlanta ATL 11:20 → BUR 12:56DL 483 9h 16m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → IAH 15:00 → DEN 16:43UA 2767 2h 27m Denver DEN 19:10 → BUR 20:40UA 8140 7h 40m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:20 → SFO 10:25UA 2744 3h 25m San Francisco SFO 13:50 → BUR 15:17UA 626 8h 57m 100% 76%
UnitedDetails → IAH 14:29 → SFO 16:27UA 2611 2h 09m San Francisco SFO 18:36 → BUR 19:58UA 2001 7h 29m 92% 75%
AlaskaDetails → IAH 05:57 → SEA 08:14AS 241 2h 40m Seattle SEA 10:54 → BUR 13:28AS 1395 9h 31m 99% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAH 16:32 → DEN 18:24UA 470 46m Denver DEN 19:10 → BUR 20:40UA 8140 6h 08m 68% 52%
JetBlueDetails → IAH 11:43 → JFK 16:21B6 1382 55m New York JFK 17:16 → BUR 20:35B6 358 10h 52m 63% 45%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON