tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:35, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Bozeman on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 623 United IAH 09:41 BZN 12:23 18% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 1 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050 1h 46m Minneapolis MSP 10:59 → BZN 12:35DL 2946 7h 05m 96% 89%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:49DL 1069 2h 29m Atlanta ATL 11:18 → BZN 13:20DL 406 8h 40m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → LAX 08:57UA 2600 3h 53m Los Angeles LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212 10h 04m 100% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 2h 54m Denver DEN 11:46 → BZN 13:38UA 741 7h 18m 99% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 1h 11m Chicago ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224 7h 40m 98% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAH 15:00 → DEN 16:43UA 2767 2h 42m Denver DEN 19:25 → BZN 21:14UA 1347 7h 14m 98% 82%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 2h 44m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:03 → BZN 11:18AA 952 7h 16m 97% 79%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 57m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BZN 12:05DL 1971 5h 30m 87% 77%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON