Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–23% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


OO 408 SkyWest	IAH 20:20	CHA 23:26	19%	7%	0.8%	no record
UA 5091 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 12:50	CHA 16:03	23%	8%	0.7%	69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chattanooga on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Chattanooga is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:49DL 1069	1h 47m Atlanta	ATL 10:36 → CHA 11:30DL 1737	4h 50m	98%	86%
United Details →	IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044	2h 26m Chicago	ORD 10:25 → CHA 13:16UA 4543 · flown by GoJet	7h 12m	100%	86%
Delta Details →	IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 13:53 → CHA 14:43DL 3141	6h 43m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	IAH 09:47 → ATL 12:54DL 1585	3h 18m Atlanta	ATL 16:12 → CHA 17:15DL 5179 · flown by Endeavor	6h 28m	99%	83%
Delta Details →	IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572	3h 56m Atlanta	ATL 21:50 → CHA 22:47DL 1059	7h 09m	98%	79%
American Details →	IAH 05:41 → CLT 09:24AA 2011	2h 01m Charlotte	CLT 11:25 → CHA 12:54AA 6127 · flown by Piedmont	6h 13m	96%	77%
American Details →	IAH 07:00 → DFW 08:28AA 3026	3h 55m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:23 → CHA 15:38AA 2037	7h 38m	96%	69%
American Details →	IAH 08:54 → CLT 12:30AA 3162	2h 10m Charlotte	CLT 14:40 → CHA 16:08AA 6051 · flown by Piedmont	6h 14m	92%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON