Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: UA 6295 at 12:41 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 27%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 6295 United flown by Mesa Flight history →	IAH 12:41	CHS 16:25	17%	6%	1.8%	80%
UA 8137 United	IAH 18:47	CHS 22:28	27%	10%	4.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charleston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	IAH 07:25 → IAD 11:32UA 1549	1h 50m Dulles	IAD 13:22 → CHS 15:16UA 1952	6h 51m	97%	86%
United Details →	IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874	3h 03m Denver	DEN 09:50 → CHS 15:14UA 1003	8h 59m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050	3h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 12:38 → CHS 16:28DL 2463	8h 58m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:49DL 1069	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 10:41 → CHS 11:54DL 3107	5h 14m	98%	83%
American Details →	IAH 05:41 → CLT 09:24AA 2011	3h 03m Charlotte	CLT 12:27 → CHS 13:48AA 5222 · flown by PSA	7h 07m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 12:31 → CHS 13:43DL 2179	5h 43m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	IAH 09:47 → ATL 12:54DL 1585	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 16:00 → CHS 17:19DL 2174	6h 32m	99%	81%
United Details →	IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044	2h 52m Chicago	ORD 10:51 → CHS 14:09UA 2631	8h 05m	100%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON