Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2011 at 05:41 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–25%.

Safest bet that day AA 2011 IAH 05:41 → CLT 09:24 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1478 IAH 16:16 → CLT 19:52 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2011 American Flight history →	IAH 05:41	CLT 09:24	8%	3%	0.7%	91%
AA 3162 American Flight history →	IAH 08:54	CLT 12:30	15%	4%	0.6%	84%
AA 2445 American Flight history →	IAH 10:54	CLT 14:31	22%	5%	0.7%	90%worse than usual
AA 1478 American Flight history →	IAH 16:16	CLT 19:52	25%	8%	0.8%	81%
UA 6197 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 12:10	CLT 16:02	16%	8%	0.0%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON