Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 2086 United Flight history →	IAH 19:55	CMH 23:49	21%	7%	0.6%	76%
OO 4788 SkyWest	IAH 12:19	CMH 16:16	21%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbus on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Columbus is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18DL 1389	3h 02m Detroit	DTW 12:20 → CMH 13:27DL 5774 · flown by Republic	6h 57m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050	3h 32m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → CMH 15:42DL 2550	8h 12m	98%	89%
United Details →	IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874	2h 48m Denver	DEN 09:35 → CMH 14:28UA 480	8h 13m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:49DL 1069	3h 17m Atlanta	ATL 12:06 → CMH 13:38DL 1750	6h 58m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	IAH 11:32 → DTW 15:20DL 1043	2h 35m Detroit	DTW 17:55 → CMH 19:05DL 5762 · flown by Republic	6h 33m	99%	87%
United Details →	IAH 16:35 → IAD 20:46UA 2388	1h 35m Dulles	IAD 22:21 → CMH 23:49UA 3646 · flown by Republic	6h 14m	93%	83%
United Details →	IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044	2h 57m Chicago	ORD 10:56 → CMH 13:19UA 2063	7h 15m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	IAH 12:06 → ATL 15:18DL 1682	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → CMH 19:27DL 2786	6h 21m	97%	81%
Tight connection: often missed
Frontier Details →	IAH 15:01 → MCO 18:41F9 4978	52m Orlando	MCO 19:33 → CMH 22:11F9 2757	6h 10m	74%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON