Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 17–21% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 2850 IAH 12:39 → CVG 16:15 · 17% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 2610 IAH 23:30 → CVG 02:29 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 2850 United	IAH 12:39	CVG 16:15	17%	6%	0.6%	no record
UA 2069 United Flight history →	IAH 20:13	CVG 23:44	19%	5%	0.6%	71%
AS 2610 Alaska	IAH 23:30	CVG 02:29	21%	5%	1.0%	no record
UA 6312 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 07:30	CVG 10:59	11%	2%	1.0%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON