Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 8–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 512 IAH 07:45 → DCA 11:40 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 235 IAH 16:42 → DCA 20:57 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 512 United Flight history →	IAH 07:45	DCA 11:40	8%	3%	0.6%	95%
OH 5463 PSA	IAH 06:42	DCA 11:08	8%	2%	1.2%	no record
UA 654 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	DCA 16:03	15%	5%	0.6%	75%
UA 1627 United Flight history →	IAH 18:03	DCA 22:15	17%	6%	0.6%	66%
UA 235 United	IAH 16:42	DCA 20:57	17%	6%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON