Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1874 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 1874 IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest F9 3227 IAH 10:25 → DEN 12:13 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1874 United Flight history →	IAH 05:15	DEN 06:47	5%	2%	0.6%	96%
UA 2415 United	IAH 06:17	DEN 07:56	7%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1686 United	IAH 08:28	DEN 09:50	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
UA 1575 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	DEN 08:52	13%	3%	0.6%	77%
UA 8120 United	IAH 09:36	DEN 11:15	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2787 United	IAH 10:37	DEN 12:14	14%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 2168 United Flight history →	IAH 12:33	DEN 14:17	14%	4%	0.6%	86%
F9 3229 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 06:30	DEN 08:14	15%	4%	0.7%	88%
UA 2767 United Flight history →	IAH 15:00	DEN 16:43	16%	5%	0.6%	75%
UA 1654 United Flight history →	IAH 18:19	DEN 20:14	18%	6%	0.6%	66%
UA 685 United	IAH 20:10	DEN 21:29	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 470 United Flight history →	IAH 16:32	DEN 18:24	22%	7%	0.6%	65%
F9 3227 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 10:25	DEN 12:13	22%	6%	0.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON