Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2551 at 05:02 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 2551 IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest UA 1949 IAH 20:11 → DFW 21:24 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


AA 2551 American Flight history →	IAH 05:02	DFW 06:19	8%	4%	0.9%	90%
AA 700 American Flight history →	IAH 06:02	DFW 07:28	10%	4%	0.9%	90%
AA 3598 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	IAH 09:05	DFW 10:27	15%	4%	1.1%	81%
AA 3026 American Flight history →	IAH 07:00	DFW 08:28	16%	6%	0.9%	70%
MQ 3477 Envoy	IAH 12:08	DFW 13:26	19%	6%	1.0%	no record
UA 358 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	DFW 08:28	19%	5%	0.6%	86%
UA 1388 United Flight history →	IAH 15:00	DFW 16:30	22%	9%	0.7%	77%
OH 5576 PSA	IAH 16:15	DFW 17:47	23%	9%	1.3%	no record
AA 1407 American Flight history →	IAH 10:18	DFW 11:38	23%	7%	0.9%	86%
AA 9785 American	IAH 10:00	DFW 11:25	24%	7%	0.9%	no record
AA 1397 American	IAH 14:08	DFW 15:30	27%	10%	1.2%	no record
UA 1183 United Flight history →	IAH 21:33	DFW 22:45	28%	15%	2.4%	62%
OH 5299 PSA	IAH 19:28	DFW 21:05	31%	17%	15.7%	no record
UA 1535 United Flight history →	IAH 18:05	DFW 19:31	32%	12%	0.9%	71%
UA 1949 United Flight history →	IAH 20:11	DFW 21:24	34%	19%	10.3%	71%
UA 4024 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 12:05	DFW 13:34	20%	11%	0.0%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON