tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 1780 at 20:12, with a 21% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 1780 United Flight history → IAH 20:12 DSM 22:35 21% 7% 0.6% 77%
UA 6166 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAH 11:55 DSM 14:10 16% 5% 1.4% 84%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Des Moines on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:25 → IAD 11:32UA 1549 1h 30m Dulles IAD 13:02 → DSM 14:38UA 3754 7h 13m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 1h 19m Chicago ORD 09:18 → DSM 10:37UA 466 5h 33m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:47 → ATL 12:54DL 1585 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 14:05 → DSM 15:20DL 2094 5h 33m 91% 80%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:41 → CLT 09:24AA 2011 1h 18m Charlotte CLT 10:42 → DSM 12:12AA 2962 6h 31m 94% 80%
DeltaDetails → IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572 3h 21m Atlanta ATL 21:15 → DSM 22:29DL 2306 7h 51m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:10 → ORD 09:04UA 2616 3h 56m Chicago ORD 13:00 → DSM 14:23UA 1658 8h 13m 100% 79%
UnitedDetails → IAH 16:32 → DEN 18:24UA 470 2h 36m Denver DEN 21:00 → DSM 23:47UA 1213 7h 15m 96% 79%
UnitedDetails → IAH 12:33 → DEN 14:17UA 2168 3h 23m Denver DEN 17:40 → DSM 20:30UA 549 7h 57m 99% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAH 18:19 → DEN 20:14UA 1654 46m Denver DEN 21:00 → DSM 23:47UA 1213 5h 28m 75% 61%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON