Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1389 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 1389 IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest F9 1958 IAH 14:54 → DTW 18:49 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


DL 1389 Delta Flight history →	IAH 05:30	DTW 09:18	6%	2%	0.5%	90%
DL 1043 Delta Flight history →	IAH 11:32	DTW 15:20	13%	4%	0.5%	85%
DL 1307 Delta Flight history →	IAH 15:20	DTW 19:03	15%	5%	0.5%	74%
UA 464 United	IAH 14:21	DTW 18:15	21%	7%	0.6%	no record
F9 1958 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 14:54	DTW 18:49	24%	7%	0.8%	69%
UA 4064 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 09:45	DTW 13:42	10%	4%	0.0%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON