Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 16–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day YV 4002 IAH 20:19 → ECP 22:20 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 4902 IAH 14:39 → ECP 16:19 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YV 4002 Mesa	IAH 20:19	ECP 22:20	16%	7%	1.7%	no record
UA 4969 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	IAH 12:16	ECP 14:14	21%	4%	1.0%	80%
UA 4225 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	IAH 09:21	ECP 11:01	21%	3%	1.0%	80%
UA 4902 United flown by CommuteAir Flight history →	IAH 14:39	ECP 16:19	25%	5%	1.9%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON