Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 5389 at 12:18, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OO 5389 IAH 12:18 → ELP 13:29 · 11% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OO 5389 SkyWest	IAH 12:18	ELP 13:29	11%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 3983 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 16:58	ELP 18:02	15%	7%	0.9%	85%
UA 4010 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 21:40	ELP 22:44	18%	7%	0.0%	82%
UA 4009 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 19:57	ELP 21:01	20%	8%	0.0%	80%
UA 4361 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 12:10	ELP 13:15	22%	7%	0.0%	78%
UA 4275 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:20	ELP 15:25	23%	6%	0.0%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON