Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1797 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–31%.

Safest bet that day UA 1797 IAH 06:00 → EWR 10:33 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest UA 2608 IAH 14:43 → EWR 19:29 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1797 United Flight history →	IAH 06:00	EWR 10:33	8%	2%	0.8%	93%
UA 1886 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	EWR 11:59	10%	3%	0.8%	88%
UA 1444 United Flight history →	IAH 19:55	EWR 00:37	21%	6%	0.7%	76%
UA 2402 United Flight history →	IAH 09:48	EWR 14:27	22%	7%	0.8%	79%
UA 1340 United Flight history →	IAH 10:57	EWR 15:34	25%	9%	0.7%	73%
UA 1397 United Flight history →	IAH 13:46	EWR 18:30	26%	12%	0.8%	74%
UA 404 United Flight history →	IAH 18:18	EWR 23:00	27%	8%	0.8%	66%
UA 2371 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	EWR 16:46	27%	9%	0.7%	72%
UA 700 United Flight history →	IAH 16:47	EWR 21:29	31%	10%	0.7%	64%
UA 2608 United Flight history →	IAH 14:43	EWR 19:29	33%	13%	0.8%	59%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	IAH 09:35 → MSY 10:51UA 575	52m New Orleans	MSY 11:43 → EWR 15:36UA 2101	5h 01m	82%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON