tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, OO 5716 at 18:22, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
OO 5716 SkyWest IAH 18:22 GRR 22:28 14% 8% 1.0% no record
UA 6134 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAH 12:15 GRR 16:09 25% 6% 0.0% 75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Grand Rapids is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050 3h 54m Minneapolis MSP 13:07 → GRR 15:36DL 1245 8h 06m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:49DL 1069 1h 36m Atlanta ATL 10:25 → GRR 12:21DL 2547 5h 41m 98% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 3h 11m Denver DEN 09:58 → GRR 14:35UA 2637 8h 20m 99% 86%
FrontierDetails → IAH 06:30 → DEN 08:14F9 3229 2h 35m Denver DEN 10:49 → GRR 15:34F9 1248 8h 04m 96% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 2h 38m Chicago ORD 10:37 → GRR 12:50UA 1297 6h 46m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:00 → EWR 10:33UA 1797 3h 19m Newark EWR 13:52 → GRR 16:03UA 3419 · flown by Republic 9h 03m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → IAH 11:00 → ORD 13:48AA 2504 3h 22m Chicago ORD 17:10 → GRR 19:20AA 4729 · flown by Republic 7h 20m 100% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAH 10:57 → EWR 15:34UA 1340 3h 56m Newark EWR 19:30 → GRR 21:50UA 3580 · flown by Republic 9h 53m 100% 81%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → IAH 13:46 → EWR 18:30UA 1397 1h 00m Newark EWR 19:30 → GRR 21:50UA 3580 · flown by Republic 7h 04m 75% 60%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON