Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 66% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


B6 1382 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 11:43	JFK 16:21	34%	13%	0.9%	50%
B6 282 JetBlue Flight history →	IAH 18:17	JFK 23:00	38%	14%	1.2%	45%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050	3h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	9h 30m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:49DL 1069	2h 16m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → JFK 13:20DL 2380	6h 40m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	IAH 12:06 → ATL 15:18DL 1682	3h 27m Atlanta	ATL 18:45 → JFK 21:29DL 2378	8h 23m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	IAH 11:32 → DTW 15:20DL 1043	2h 43m Detroit	DTW 18:03 → JFK 20:04DL 1316	7h 32m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18DL 1389	56m Detroit	DTW 10:14 → JFK 11:58DL 2751	5h 28m	93%	80%
Delta Details →	IAH 09:47 → ATL 12:54DL 1585	2h 33m Atlanta	ATL 15:27 → JFK 17:56DL 1575	7h 09m	98%	76%
American Details →	IAH 05:41 → CLT 09:24AA 2011	2h 14m Charlotte	CLT 11:38 → JFK 13:31AA 374	6h 50m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	IAH 07:25 → LAX 08:45DL 1216	1h 17m Los Angeles	LAX 10:02 → JFK 18:36DL 958	10h 11m	95%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlue Details →	IAH 11:01 → BOS 15:44B6 932	59m Boston	BOS 16:43 → JFK 18:03B6 317	6h 02m	66%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON