Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1264 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–28%.

Safest bet that day UA 1264 IAH 07:20 → LAS 08:35 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest UA 2190 IAH 16:47 → LAS 18:06 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1264 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	LAS 08:35	10%	3%	0.6%	95%
UA 1524 United Flight history →	IAH 11:55	LAS 13:13	14%	4%	0.6%	88%
F9 1489 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 07:11	LAS 08:38	14%	5%	0.9%	82%
UA 1799 United Flight history →	IAH 10:55	LAS 12:14	15%	5%	0.6%	88%
UA 1971 United Flight history →	IAH 14:20	LAS 15:37	19%	6%	0.7%	85%
UA 1360 United Flight history →	IAH 20:05	LAS 21:23	25%	9%	0.7%	66%
UA 2190 United Flight history →	IAH 16:47	LAS 18:06	28%	10%	0.9%	82%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON