Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 417 at 05:49 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 417 IAH 05:49 → LAX 07:16 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest F9 1755 IAH 22:22 → LAX 00:08 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 75% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 417 United Flight history →	IAH 05:49	LAX 07:16	8%	3%	0.6%	97%
DL 1216 Delta Flight history →	IAH 07:25	LAX 08:45	11%	4%	0.5%	94%
UA 2600 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	LAX 08:57	11%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 469 United Flight history →	IAH 09:53	LAX 11:30	15%	4%	0.6%	89%
UA 1945 United Flight history →	IAH 14:54	LAX 16:33	15%	5%	0.6%	89%
UA 2460 United Flight history →	IAH 12:33	LAX 14:06	15%	5%	0.6%	87%
UA 1743 United Flight history →	IAH 16:31	LAX 18:08	16%	6%	0.6%	82%
OO 4998 SkyWest	IAH 20:08	LAX 21:52	19%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 483 United Flight history →	IAH 19:50	LAX 21:26	19%	6%	0.6%	73%
UA 2658 United Flight history →	IAH 18:48	LAX 20:25	19%	6%	0.6%	82%
UA 434 United Flight history →	IAH 21:42	LAX 23:09	22%	6%	0.6%	82%
F9 1755 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 22:22	LAX 00:08	22%	5%	1.0%	75%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON