Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1417 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 1417 IAH 07:00 → LGA 11:33 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 2181 IAH 12:00 → LGA 16:44 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1417 Delta Flight history →	IAH 07:00	LGA 11:33	11%	3%	0.9%	88%
UA 1143 United	IAH 08:03	LGA 12:45	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 2099 Delta Flight history →	IAH 13:18	LGA 17:51	19%	6%	0.9%	65%
UA 2682 United Flight history →	IAH 18:37	LGA 23:22	21%	6%	0.7%	88%
UA 334 United Flight history →	IAH 16:15	LGA 20:59	23%	8%	0.7%	61%
UA 2495 United	IAH 17:13	LGA 21:38	24%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 2181 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	LGA 16:44	24%	8%	0.7%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON