Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:35, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Long Beach on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 72% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Long Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Long Beach is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583	1h 17m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:05 → LGB 11:59DL 1116	6h 24m	93%	82%
Alaska Details →	IAH 05:57 → SEA 08:14AS 241	3h 08m Seattle	SEA 11:22 → LGB 13:57AS 717	10h 00m	99%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	IAH 14:38 → SEA 17:21AS 439	53m Seattle	SEA 18:14 → LGB 20:51AS 1310	8h 13m	72%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON