Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2245 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–19%.

Safest bet that day UA 2245 IAH 07:20 → MCO 10:51 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 1418 IAH 13:16 → MCO 16:53 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2245 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	MCO 10:51	9%	4%	6.1%	94%
UA 521 United	IAH 08:28	MCO 12:02	13%	5%	4.8%	no record
F9 2418 Frontier	IAH 01:14	MCO 05:02	14%	5%	12.0%	no record
UA 2310 United Flight history →	IAH 09:29	MCO 12:59	15%	5%	15.6%	86%
UA 3883 United	IAH 19:29	MCO 23:05	18%	7%	1.1%	no record
UA 2662 United Flight history →	IAH 12:25	MCO 16:04	19%	6%	1.6%	86%
UA 1571 United Flight history →	IAH 17:09	MCO 20:48	19%	7%	1.2%	82%
UA 2451 United Flight history →	IAH 18:26	MCO 21:58	19%	7%	1.2%	80%
UA 496 United Flight history →	IAH 14:36	MCO 18:14	20%	6%	1.5%	81%
F9 4978 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 15:01	MCO 18:41	21%	8%	2.1%	66%
F9 1418 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 13:16	MCO 16:53	22%	7%	2.6%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON