Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 09:47, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Chicago on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Chicago on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 09:47 → ATL 12:54DL 1585	1h 35m Atlanta	ATL 14:29 → MDW 15:30DL 1728	5h 43m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18DL 1389	3h 07m Detroit	DTW 12:25 → MDW 12:46DL 4688 · flown by Endeavor	7h 16m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 21:15 → MDW 22:15DL 1076	7h 37m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:49DL 1069	51m Atlanta	ATL 09:40 → MDW 10:42DL 2417	5h 02m	86%	75%
Delta Details →	IAH 11:32 → DTW 15:20DL 1043	2h 47m Detroit	DTW 18:07 → MDW 18:25DL 4677 · flown by Endeavor	6h 57m	99%	58%
Delta Details →	IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050	2h 17m Minneapolis	MSP 11:30 → MDW 13:09DL 4820 · flown by Endeavor	6h 39m	97%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON