Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2753 at 07:55 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 2753 IAH 07:55 → MIA 11:44 · 16% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 678 IAH 16:49 → MIA 20:35 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2753 United	IAH 07:55	MIA 11:44	16%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2144 American Flight history →	IAH 06:12	MIA 09:57	17%	4%	1.1%	93%
UA 410 United Flight history →	IAH 12:00	MIA 15:47	23%	7%	0.7%	84%
UA 1829 United Flight history →	IAH 19:01	MIA 22:40	24%	9%	0.7%	78%
F9 1462 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 10:48	MIA 14:29	31%	9%	1.3%	73%
AA 1347 American Flight history →	IAH 10:46	MIA 14:27	32%	7%	1.2%	87%worse than usual
AA 678 American Flight history →	IAH 16:49	MIA 20:35	32%	9%	1.1%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON