Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 4774 at 19:57, with a 15% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 4774 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 19:57	MKE 22:59	15%	6%	0.7%	86%
UA 6149 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 07:20	MKE 10:05	7%	3%	0.0%	93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Milwaukee on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:49DL 1069	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 10:49 → MKE 11:51DL 1151	6h 11m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315	2h 49m Atlanta	ATL 12:53 → MKE 13:50DL 1246	6h 50m	99%	88%
United Details →	IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874	3h 10m Denver	DEN 09:57 → MKE 13:25UA 1836	8h 10m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	IAH 09:47 → ATL 12:54DL 1585	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 15:55 → MKE 16:59DL 1206	7h 12m	99%	85%
United Details →	IAH 09:48 → EWR 14:27UA 2402	2h 00m Newark	EWR 16:27 → MKE 18:05UA 3562 · flown by Republic	8h 17m	97%	80%
United Details →	IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044	2h 45m Chicago	ORD 10:44 → MKE 11:45UA 5234 · flown by SkyWest	6h 41m	100%	79%
United Details →	IAH 13:46 → EWR 18:30UA 1397	3h 29m Newark	EWR 21:59 → MKE 23:34UA 3564 · flown by Republic	9h 48m	98%	78%
Delta Details →	IAH 14:38 → ATL 17:54DL 1572	2h 00m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → MKE 21:02DL 2388	6h 24m	95%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	IAH 10:57 → EWR 15:34UA 1340	53m Newark	EWR 16:27 → MKE 18:05UA 3562 · flown by Republic	7h 08m	70%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON