Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1050 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 1050 IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 1818 IAH 14:28 → MSP 17:06 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1050 Delta Flight history →	IAH 06:30	MSP 09:13	9%	3%	0.5%	88%
DL 1516 Delta	IAH 07:59	MSP 10:44	12%	3%	0.5%	no record
DL 1554 Delta	IAH 10:42	MSP 13:35	14%	4%	0.5%	no record
DL 2617 Delta Flight history →	IAH 17:40	MSP 20:32	16%	7%	0.5%	74%
DL 9889 Delta	IAH 11:25	MSP 14:07	16%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 8172 United	IAH 19:56	MSP 23:01	19%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1818 United	IAH 14:28	MSP 17:06	22%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON