Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 22–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 5278 IAH 18:12 → OKC 19:53 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest UA 1084 IAH 20:06 → OKC 21:35 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 5278 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	IAH 18:12	OKC 19:53	22%	12%	3.9%	72%
UA 1084 United	IAH 20:06	OKC 21:35	27%	12%	1.8%	no record
UA 6178 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 07:25	OKC 08:57	10%	3%	0.0%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON