tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 1563 at 20:31, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1563 United Flight history → IAH 20:31 ONT 21:55 23% 7% 0.6% 79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 2 h behind Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:35 → SLC 09:48DL 1583 1h 36m Salt Lake City SLC 11:24 → ONT 12:22DL 1173 6h 47m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → DEN 08:52UA 1575 2h 33m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 27m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → IAH 15:30 → SFO 17:35UA 589 3h 38m San Francisco SFO 21:13 → ONT 22:41UA 552 9h 11m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 2h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:20 → ONT 09:38AA 1820 6h 36m 96% 74%
UnitedDetails → IAH 15:00 → DEN 16:43UA 2767 2h 37m Denver DEN 19:20 → ONT 20:42UA 2028 7h 42m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → IAH 07:00 → DFW 08:28AA 3026 3h 52m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → ONT 13:34AA 2635 8h 34m 96% 72%
AmericanDetails → IAH 06:02 → DFW 07:28AA 700 3h 12m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → ONT 11:56AA 2956 7h 54m 96% 71%
DeltaDetails → IAH 12:06 → ATL 15:18DL 1682 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 8h 24m 94% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON