Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 19 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1044 at 05:04 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 1044 IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 2786 IAH 17:18 → ORD 19:45 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1044 United Flight history →	IAH 05:04	ORD 07:59	5%	2%	0.6%	97%
UA 2616 United Flight history →	IAH 06:10	ORD 09:04	7%	3%	0.6%	88%
UA 1617 United Flight history →	IAH 08:05	ORD 11:02	9%	4%	0.6%	92%
UA 2182 United Flight history →	IAH 07:24	ORD 10:20	9%	4%	0.6%	89%
AA 3106 American Flight history →	IAH 06:13	ORD 09:07	12%	4%	0.9%	89%
UA 2124 United Flight history →	IAH 09:35	ORD 12:29	14%	5%	0.6%	86%
AA 2243 American	IAH 00:38	ORD 03:37	15%	6%	0.9%	no record
UA 1752 United Flight history →	IAH 22:08	ORD 00:45	17%	6%	0.6%	71%
UA 787 United Flight history →	IAH 20:25	ORD 23:15	20%	6%	0.6%	72%
UA 1691 United	IAH 11:53	ORD 14:37	21%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 1517 American	IAH 09:06	ORD 11:49	21%	7%	0.8%	no record
UA 1299 United	IAH 13:48	ORD 16:30	23%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 2775 United	IAH 15:34	ORD 18:16	26%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 2197 United Flight history →	IAH 18:44	ORD 21:40	26%	7%	0.6%	69%
F9 1882 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 11:17	ORD 14:06	29%	9%	1.4%	64%
AA 3322 American Flight history →	IAH 14:08	ORD 17:02	30%	9%	1.2%	85%worse than usual
AA 2504 American Flight history →	IAH 10:51	ORD 13:23	32%	9%	0.8%	62%
AA 2302 American	IAH 16:59	ORD 19:59	32%	9%	0.9%	no record
UA 2786 United	IAH 17:18	ORD 19:45	32%	7%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON