Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 87% chance of reaching Norfolk on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Norfolk is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:49DL 1069	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 12:26 → ORF 14:06DL 2925	7h 26m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	IAH 15:20 → DTW 19:03DL 1307	2h 37m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → ORF 23:32DL 412	7h 12m	98%	84%
American Details →	IAH 12:01 → PHL 16:40AA 2427	3h 07m Philadelphia	PHL 19:47 → ORF 21:27AA 5375 · flown by PSA	8h 26m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	IAH 09:47 → ATL 12:54DL 1585	1h 48m Atlanta	ATL 14:42 → ORF 16:22DL 1101	5h 35m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	IAH 05:30 → DTW 09:18DL 1389	47m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → ORF 11:57DL 3066	5h 27m	89%	80%
Delta Details →	IAH 12:06 → ATL 15:18DL 1682	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 17:50 → ORF 19:39DL 1346	6h 33m	98%	80%
Frontier Details →	IAH 06:18 → ATL 09:44F9 1404	3h 25m Atlanta	ATL 13:09 → ORF 15:00F9 3072	7h 42m	98%	80%
United Details →	IAH 06:10 → ORD 09:04UA 2616	3h 03m Chicago	ORD 12:07 → ORF 15:24UA 2807	8h 14m	100%	80%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	IAH 10:54 → CLT 14:31AA 2445	50m Charlotte	CLT 15:21 → ORF 16:41AA 2651	4h 47m	71%	55%
United Details →	IAH 12:00 → EWR 16:46UA 2371	54m Newark	EWR 17:40 → ORF 19:21UA 4448 · flown by GoJet	6h 21m	68%	44%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON