Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2203 at 07:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–22%.

Safest bet that day UA 2203 IAH 07:30 → PHL 11:40 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest UA 2748 IAH 12:22 → PHL 16:54 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2203 United Flight history →	IAH 07:30	PHL 11:40	9%	3%	0.6%	97%
AA 3196 American	IAH 07:00	PHL 11:36	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2427 American Flight history →	IAH 12:01	PHL 16:40	21%	7%	0.7%	81%
AA 2486 American	IAH 16:24	PHL 21:04	21%	8%	0.7%	no record
UA 2748 United Flight history →	IAH 12:22	PHL 16:54	22%	6%	0.6%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON