Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2614 at 07:58 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 2614 IAH 07:58 → PHX 09:01 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 1703 IAH 17:38 → PHX 18:42 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2614 United Flight history →	IAH 07:58	PHX 09:01	12%	5%	0.7%	94%
UA 1895 United Flight history →	IAH 09:40	PHX 10:34	14%	5%	0.7%	85%
MQ 3750 Envoy	IAH 08:20	PHX 09:18	14%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 1798 United Flight history →	IAH 14:15	PHX 15:04	16%	6%	0.6%	86%
UA 2078 United Flight history →	IAH 19:53	PHX 20:42	19%	8%	0.7%	72%
UA 1478 United	IAH 16:52	PHX 17:51	20%	8%	0.6%	no record
AA 2357 American Flight history →	IAH 14:19	PHX 15:14	22%	7%	0.7%	89%worse than usual
F9 1703 Frontier Flight history →	IAH 17:38	PHX 18:42	26%	8%	0.8%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON