Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 488 at 20:16, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day UA 488 IAH 20:16 → PNS 21:55 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 488 United	IAH 20:16	PNS 21:55	18%	7%	0.7%	no record
UA 4869 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 14:20	PNS 16:06	16%	4%	1.3%	84%
UA 4293 United flown by CommuteAir no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 08:00	PNS 09:43	18%	6%	0.6%	82%
UA 6195 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record	IAH 18:12	PNS 19:58	19%	9%	0.0%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON