tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, UA 2196 at 12:02, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2196 United Flight history → IAH 12:02 RDU 15:55 14% 5% 0.6% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:49DL 1069 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 11:12 → RDU 12:42DL 1488 6h 02m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315 3h 01m Atlanta ATL 13:05 → RDU 14:30DL 2026 6h 30m 99% 87%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 3h 02m Denver DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269 9h 01m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:25 → IAD 11:32UA 1549 1h 15m Dulles IAD 12:47 → RDU 14:11UA 439 5h 46m 96% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050 1h 22m Minneapolis MSP 10:35 → RDU 14:09DL 2521 6h 39m 94% 85%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 2h 49m Chicago ORD 10:48 → RDU 14:01UA 2616 7h 57m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:47 → ATL 12:54DL 1585 2h 58m Atlanta ATL 15:52 → RDU 17:25DL 2600 6h 38m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAH 15:20 → DTW 19:03DL 1307 2h 37m Detroit DTW 21:40 → RDU 23:25DL 2839 7h 05m 98% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IAH 16:49 → MIA 20:35AA 678 1h 12m Miami MIA 21:47 → RDU 23:59AA 1286 6h 10m 75% 49%
AmericanDetails → IAH 11:00 → ORD 13:48AA 2504 54m Chicago ORD 14:42 → RDU 17:53AA 2949 5h 53m 72% 46%
UnitedDetails → IAH 14:43 → EWR 19:29UA 2608 50m Newark EWR 20:19 → RDU 22:05UA 2359 6h 22m 58% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON