tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 77% chance of reaching Richmond on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 45% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 4057 United flown by Mesa no forecast: 12-month record IAH 12:03 RIC 16:11 11% 4% 0.9% 89%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Richmond is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → IAH 07:00 → ATL 10:04DL 1315 3h 41m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → RIC 15:20DL 3152 7h 20m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:25 → IAD 11:32UA 1549 1h 28m Dulles IAD 13:00 → RIC 14:01UA 4535 · flown by GoJet 5h 36m 97% 86%
UnitedDetails → IAH 08:05 → ORD 11:02UA 1617 3h 28m Chicago ORD 14:30 → RIC 17:49UA 3523 · flown by Republic 8h 44m 100% 85%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:47 → ATL 12:54DL 1585 2h 55m Atlanta ATL 15:49 → RIC 17:30DL 1214 6h 43m 99% 83%
UnitedDetails → IAH 07:20 → EWR 11:59UA 1886 3h 16m Newark EWR 15:15 → RIC 16:56UA 3639 · flown by Republic 8h 36m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551 1h 01m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 07:20 → RIC 11:33AA 3778 · flown by Envoy 5h 31m 92% 82%
AmericanDetails → IAH 05:41 → CLT 09:24AA 2011 1h 14m Charlotte CLT 10:38 → RIC 12:04AA 5119 · flown by PSA 5h 23m 94% 80%
DeltaDetails → IAH 12:06 → ATL 15:18DL 1682 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 17:55 → RIC 19:35DL 1348 6h 29m 98% 80%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IAH 10:54 → CLT 14:31AA 2445 52m Charlotte CLT 15:23 → RIC 16:41AA 1757 4h 47m 72% 54%
UnitedDetails → IAH 09:48 → EWR 14:27UA 2402 48m Newark EWR 15:15 → RIC 16:56UA 3639 · flown by Republic 6h 08m 60% 51%
JetBlueDetails → IAH 16:42 → FLL 20:05B6 2180 50m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:55 → RIC 23:18B6 1146 5h 36m 45% 32%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON