tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 18–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
UA 494 United IAH 09:31 RSW 13:08 18% 5% 1.3% no record
UA 2095 United IAH 18:31 RSW 22:11 19% 8% 1.0% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fort Myers is 1 h ahead of Houston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:15 → DEN 06:47UA 1874 2h 48m Denver DEN 09:35 → RSW 15:20UA 2601 9h 05m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → IAH 06:30 → MSP 09:13DL 1050 3h 37m Minneapolis MSP 12:50 → RSW 17:18DL 2219 9h 48m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → IAH 05:04 → ORD 07:59UA 1044 1h 21m Chicago ORD 09:20 → RSW 13:15UA 1036 7h 11m 98% 81%
DeltaDetails → IAH 05:40 → ATL 08:49DL 1069 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 11:49 → RSW 13:36DL 1153 6h 56m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:10 → ORD 09:04UA 2616 1h 59m Chicago ORD 11:03 → RSW 14:55UA 2137 7h 45m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → IAH 06:00 → EWR 10:33UA 1797 1h 29m Newark EWR 12:02 → RSW 15:16UA 1810 8h 16m 97% 78%
UnitedDetails → IAH 12:33 → DEN 14:17UA 2168 1h 59m Denver DEN 16:16 → RSW 21:58UA 572 8h 25m 95% 77%
DeltaDetails → IAH 09:47 → ATL 12:54DL 1585 2h 05m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379 5h 57m 97% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → IAH 16:16 → CLT 19:52AA 1478 1h 04m Charlotte CLT 20:56 → RSW 22:52AA 1176 5h 36m 75% 50%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON