Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 2250 at 07:20 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 2250 IAH 07:20 → SAT 08:27 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest YV 6187 IAH 12:46 → SAT 13:41 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2250 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	SAT 08:27	9%	4%	0.6%	92%
UA 1371 United Flight history →	IAH 09:36	SAT 10:51	12%	5%	0.6%	85%
YV 4043 Mesa	IAH 16:33	SAT 17:52	16%	7%	1.1%	no record
UA 2030 United	IAH 14:46	SAT 15:53	17%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1477 United Flight history →	IAH 18:49	SAT 19:57	25%	9%	0.6%	74%
UA 1542 United Flight history →	IAH 20:20	SAT 21:28	25%	8%	0.6%	77%
UA 2198 United Flight history →	IAH 21:42	SAT 22:44	26%	9%	0.6%	69%
YV 6187 Mesa	IAH 12:46	SAT 13:41	28%	5%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON