Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1845 at 06:27 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–26%.

Safest bet that day UA 1845 IAH 06:27 → SFO 08:38 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest UA 1202 IAH 19:40 → SFO 21:55 · 26% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1845 United	IAH 06:27	SFO 08:38	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 1768 United Flight history →	IAH 07:20	SFO 09:25	16%	4%	0.6%	89%
UA 2744 United Flight history →	IAH 08:20	SFO 10:25	20%	7%	0.6%	68%
UA 589 United Flight history →	IAH 15:30	SFO 17:35	22%	9%	0.6%	80%
UA 2611 United Flight history →	IAH 14:29	SFO 16:27	25%	8%	0.6%	78%
UA 1134 United	IAH 17:26	SFO 19:38	25%	10%	0.6%	no record
UA 2358 United Flight history →	IAH 09:35	SFO 11:35	25%	8%	0.6%	74%
UA 2607 United	IAH 18:07	SFO 20:19	25%	8%	0.6%	no record
UA 382 United Flight history →	IAH 16:25	SFO 18:30	25%	8%	0.6%	73%
UA 1202 United	IAH 19:40	SFO 21:55	26%	9%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	IAH 05:02 → DFW 06:19AA 2551	51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 07:10 → SFO 08:53AA 1949	5h 51m	88%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON